OHIO - AGAIN

Posted at 7:35 p.m. ET

Ohio was critical in 2004, and is likely to be again.  A new poll shows the state dead even, despite the fact that Democrats hold the edge in party registration.

A new poll shows Sens. John McCain and Barack Obama tied in the key battleground state of Ohio.

The survey by Public Policy Polling (PPP), which includes several Democrats as clients, shows both presidential candidates with 45 percent. Ten percent remain undecided, according to the poll.

PPP noted that Obama (D-Ill.) led the Arizona Republican in Ohio polls it conducted in June and July. It suggested that Obama’s support among Democrats is softer than McCain’s support among Republicans.

A familiar pattern - a gradual loss of support for Senator Obama.  But there's another familiar pattern here, the inability of Senator McCain to forge ahead into a clear lead. 

While McCain gets the backing of nearly nine in 10 Republican voters, Obama gets the support of only three-quarters of Democrats. Obama leads among independents.

Obama's results with Democratic voters could be linked to lingering resistance among supporters of his former rival for the Democratic nomination, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.).

Many of the Democrats who aren't supporting Obama “are disproportionately white, female, and middle-aged, an indication that it could be former supporters of Hillary Clinton who are holding out,” according to the pollster's analysis.

Problem is, enough of them will probably come around to give Obama the state in November, unless McCain really rallies.  And Ohio's heavily Democratic cities are prone to the kind of voter fraud often found in big-city machines.  I'm glad Senator McCain is gaining.  Much more needs to be done.

August 18, 2008.